When figuring out what the line should be Oscar Lindberg Kids Jersey for any given matchup between two teams, there are a few steps to take. First, you determine each team's value in relation to an average NFL team, when discu sing how to build a power ratings system to help beat the books. Once you have a number for each team, you use the difference to determine what the line would be if both teams played on a neutral field. For example, if the are five points better than average and the are three points better than average, you'd make the line Patriots -2 if they played on a neutral field.The next step is what we'll discu s today: adding home-field advantage to your matchup. Historically, home-field advantage has generally been a signed a worth of three points when figuring out the line for a matchup. In our Steelers at Patriots example above, that would make a line in Foxborough Patriots -5. Some teams have been so money at home against the spread -- the Patriots and are both near 60 percent ATS at home since 2003, for example -- that some people add a half-point here or there when it's believed to be warranted, but for the most part, if you have two even teams, you'll see the home team favored by three points.It probably won't shock you to know that smart bettors don't take this three-point rule at face value, and those that dig into the numbers know that home-field advantage has actually been worth far le s than three points on average around the league. Warren Sharp recently broke down , with potential reasons ranging from improved viewing experience at home to improved travel and sport science by and more. For our purposes, the why doesn't really matter. Just knowing that it's happening is key to getting an edge.Forget the why. What really matters to bettors is: how much?Calculating home-field advantage (2014-18)Each offseason, I put together a weighted home-field advantage (wHFA) formula that takes points scored and allowed over the last five years for each team and gives a diminishing weight the further you go back in time. (While I think other data exist that is better for predicting future performance than points scored and allowed, the benefit of using these numbers is that we're already dealing with the scale we want to use for our final output. Otherwise, we'd have to find a way Alex Tuch Men Jersey to calculate a conversion rate for another stat to points scored to help us determine what it all means for our point spreads.)The results on a team level are pretty striking, and we'll get to them in a minute. But for the league as a whole, wHFA calculates that an average home-field advantage in the is 2.31 points, which is just 77 percent of the three-point standard.Perhaps this overestimating of home-field advantage is why just nine teams covered more than 50 percent of the time at home last year (playoffs included), with 15 teams below water and eight teams right on 50 percent. More teams topped 50 percent than did not in 2016 and 2017, so it's also po sible this is a one-year blip. But wHFA also came in well below Cody Eakin Kids Jersey three points last year, and the year before, so don't be surprised if books shade away from a three-point standard on average. Team-by-team wHFABelow, you'll find a table with every team's wHFA from 2014-18, then what I'm estimating that team's home-field advantage will be in 2019. I'll be using these numbers along with my power ratings each week to determine what I believe the lines should be at the beginning of the week. If there's a large discrepancy between my line and the posted line, that's an indicator it's time to make a move.I'll cover some specific cases after the table, but for now, the data:TeamwHFA2019ARI2.172ATL2.793BAL2.973BUF2.342.5CAR3.033CHI2.352.5CIN1.271.5CLE1.182.5DAL1.662DEN2.162.5DET-0.881.5GB4.184HOU3.553.5IND3.373.5JAC3.43.5KC3.113LAC1.742LAR-0.531.5MIA6.914MIN2.512.5NE4.764NO-0.412NYG-2.221.5NYJ2.092.5OAK4.544PHI2.923PIT2.242.5SEA3.313.5SF1.452TB3.193TEN3.043WAS-0.141.5Accounting for excitementThe first curious 2019 number might be for the Browns, who are given 2.5 points at home despite a wHFA of just 1.18. Here's the thinking: for years and years, going to Browns home games must have felt like a chore rather than a reason for hope. Ryan Carpenter Men Jersey After all, this team won just once over a 37-game stretch from 2015-18. How excited would you be dealing with lo s after lo s?But optimism abounds in Cleveland in 2019, with the Browns favored to win the AFC North all summer after an influx of top-tier talent, most notably Jr. We're going to see a much different Cleveland crowd at Browns home games as the franchise chases its first division title since 1989. That was so long ago, current franchise savior was negative-6 years old. still unbelievably great at homeWhen I , I talked about how the Dolphins were surprisingly the best team in terms of wHFA in the league. There aren't many people who would consider the Dolphins an elite home team, and I think that's largely because they've been so bad on the road, it's lowering how we grade the team overall and causing them to be underrated at home.After checking in with a league-best 5.45 wHFA last year, the Dolphins blew that number out of the water this year, and their 6.91 wFA means they're nearly seven points -- seven points! -- better at home. How does that happen? The offense has been putrid on the road, and last year's 5.7-point difference between home and road is actually a three-year best for the offense. On defense, it's more of the same, with the team surrendering almost 11 points per game more on the road.I'm not telling you to give the Dolphins seven points of home-field advantage. But I am comfortable making them one of four teams with a four-point number for 2019 along with the Patriots (surprise), and . Raiders?Yes, the Raiders have turned in one of the wHFAs for 2019, thanks in large part to extreme offensive splits over the last two years. But with a scheduled move ahead in 2020, how should we treat this team for their final year in Oakland?For some teams making a move, I would definitely downgrade their home-field advantage due to hard feelings against the franchise and potential abandonment Luca Sbisa Kids Jersey by the fan base in a down year. Somehow, I don't think that's going to be a problem in the Black Hole, where they should be fired up for each and every home game in the final season. It's a situation worth monitoring as the season moves along, and I'll revisit my home-field rating depending on how their crowd responds early in the year.Better on the roadAnother interesting development is that five teams have actually been better on the road over the last five years than at home. That group of five is lead by the , who played much better away from MetLife for the second straight year, resulting in a negative-2.22 wHFA. Note that I wouldn't actually give a team a negative home-field advantage when figuring out a 2019 number, but the Giants sure make a strong case. Four of those five better-on-the-road teams have my