It didn't occur to me until Wednesday how tough this slate looks. Not from picking games, but from the actual matchups. As noted by friend of the program and Football Outsiders head honcho Aaron Schatz Jordan McRae Jersey (always buy/read FO), there's just a single game this week between teams with a winning record. The only one between two winning teams? vs. , a heavyweight battle on CBS (Nantz! Romo! Wolfson! Let's go!) on Sunday afternoon. That's no big deal, because bad matchups happen all the time. But it got me thinking about the i sues the might face down the stretch this season with the expanded playoffs in terms of interest surrounding certain games. If all the good teams are playing bad teams this week, the NFL is really leaning on parity to create playoff chaos this week. Maybe it happens and we get some wild upsets. But there's some fuglies out there this week, and there's a bigger problem looming for Week 17. With the pandemic rendering homefield advantage a fraction of itself, are teams with a division title in hand going to battle for seeding in the final week? I think about the and in the No. 2 and No. 3 seed -- will Buffalo trot out its starters to try and secure the No. 2 seed when the No. 3 seed is basically the same thing anyway? Risking the health of or or or -- or, really, any other starter -- so you can potentially get a later-round playoff game in Buffalo instead of Pittsburgh? It hardly seems worth it. Would we be looking at a different situation if there were only six seeds? Maybe it's just a random year where there's huge separation in terms of the division winners and the teams fighting for a wild-card spot. But it feels like the next three weeks could be kind of diluted from a quality-of-play perspective. Week 16 will be Christmas-time football so it might not matter, but Week 17 feels like it could be a total stinkbomb. Here's hoping I'm wrong about that ... and right about some picks. Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox) Latest Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -3 The natural wear and tear of an NFL season is taking hold on this Thursday matchup. The are down a TON of defenders -- Jonathan Abram, and are already ruled out -- with potentially more injury report attrition on the way. The Chargers aren't exactly healthy though. , and are all questionable right now. If those guys can go it's a huge leg up for the Bolts and . I'd lean their way pretty heavily right now pending the final injury report. The Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 21 Best Bets: Chargers +3 (unle s everyone is out on offense) Saturday, 4:30 p. Detroit Pistons T-Shirts m. ET (NFL Network) Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -6 If only the had managed to lose in Carolina, this would be a perfect sell high/buy low spot in this game. I still really want to like Denver here though. Buffalo is on a shorter week and coming off two HUGE wins, and everyone will be looking to back Josh Allen again. The Broncos defense is dinged up, so that's a concern. But I trust Vic Fangio to keep cooking up a new cocktail that limits the offense he's playing even without his full personnel. The injury report looks pretty favorable for guys like , and . Running backs don't matter, but I definitely want and Philip Lindsay out there, because you need to run on the Bills to beat them. Here's a wild stat: Stefon Diggs has seven touchdowns in seven games against Vic Fangio defenses. The yardage totals vary but he consistently found the end zone against Chicago while both were in the NFC North. I'd definitely look his way in terms of props here and for DFS purposes. I'm gonna hold my nose and take the Broncos because it's too many points. The Luke Kennard Jersey Pick: Bills 24, Broncos 21 Best Bets: Stefon Diggs anytime TD Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network) Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -9.5 Big time Frozen Tundra game here as it's going to be like 25 degrees in Green Bay on Saturday night. No wind though! The should get D.J. Moore back for this one but will be mi sing again. I have a hard time imagining how Carolina stops either or here. understands with two more really good games he's probably taking home some MVP hardware, particularly if he looks sharp in this game. So the will get theirs and probably be holding a lead of somewhere between 10 and 14 points with five minutes to go. It basically comes down to whether or not you trust and the Panthers to come through the back door. I do, so I'll back them here tentatively. The Over is the best play though. And Davante Adams first TD at +500 and anytime TD (whatever the number, he's scoring here). The Pick: Packers 31, Panthers 24 Best Bets: Over 51.5, Davante Adams first TD (+500) and anytime TD 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Latest Odds: Miami Dolphins +1 Imagine going back in time and telling someone in early 2018 or 2019 the would be *favored over the in December* regardle s of where the game was played. That's probably the right line, though, considering how well Miami has played and Anthony Lamb Jersey how poorly the Patriots have looked. But you can run on the Dolphins and the Patriots can at least run. The other thing the Pats can do? Make life very difficult for young quarterbacks. As good as has been for stretches this year, I'm not entirely sure he's up to the task of handling a Bill Belichick defense. This game screams Under at anything 40 or higher. The Pick: Patriots 17, Dolphins 14 Best Bets: Under 41 1 p.m. ET (Fox) Latest Odds: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 Honestly don't have a great feel for this game whatsoever. Kind of feels like an Over where keeps working his way towards a franchise tag/ma sive contract extension. The can't rush the pa ser at all, so he should have time to throw to open receivers. The defense is still good, but not quite as elite as it was earlier in the season. I think the Vikings can cook a little on offense as well -- literally, with able to exploit this defense for some chunk rush attempts. Chicago gave up just under 120 rushing yards per game over its six-game losing streak before limiting and to around 65 yards last week in a blowout win over Houston. Feels like a monster game. Give me the Bears if I'm catching points. The Pick: Bears 28, Vikings 24 Best Bets: Allen Robinson Overs 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Latest Odds: Tenne see Titans -9 This game feels pretty unfair Blake Griffin Jersey . The are currently -10.5 in some spots, but that number is going to swing wildly depending on what the status of ends up being. If he plays, maybe it stays the same, and the Titans are a smash spot because the have no defense, everyone on the Lions is banged up and Stafford could be pulled to save his long-term health. , Detroit's starting center, is playing with a FRACTURED THROAT. That's some wild stuff. It